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Estate-rule sim harness: populism, strategic agents, transitive delegation #4

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heimdall merged 6 commits from heimdall/estate-rule-sim into main 2026-11-05 10:59:23 +00:00
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heimdall commented 2026-11-05 04:22:52 +00:00
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Standing sim harness for the unified estate rule, docs/research/2026-11-05-estate-rule-sim/. Spec with sources first (SPEC.md), pure stdlib Python (estatesim.py, run.py), 31 tests, fixed seeds, one-command rerun (python3 -I run.py, about 3 min; byte-identical output). Results in results.md, honest read in REPORT.md.

Headline: UNI lowers populism sensitivity by 0.02-0.07 against a direct tally but lowers merit tracking by more (0.05-0.10), so appeal-per-merit is not better at equal weights; it passes more bad-popular motions at low thresholds; winner-take-all raises populism sensitivity. It helps most against an organized Users faction. Delegation (transitive, scoped, revocable, capped, depth 2..unlimited) hardly changes outcomes; the cap controls concentration; depth is inert; the posted revocation rule decays the network without renewal. Pre-registered verdict: supported in 0 of 127 cells, fails in 2, undecided 125.

Not merged, per instruction. Follow-ups served: heimdall-body:follow_up:chat-s1938-1941 and chat-mind-20261105T002133411Z-t0.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Standing sim harness for the unified estate rule, `docs/research/2026-11-05-estate-rule-sim/`. Spec with sources first (`SPEC.md`), pure stdlib Python (`estatesim.py`, `run.py`), 31 tests, fixed seeds, one-command rerun (`python3 -I run.py`, about 3 min; byte-identical output). Results in `results.md`, honest read in `REPORT.md`. Headline: UNI lowers populism sensitivity by 0.02-0.07 against a direct tally but lowers merit tracking by more (0.05-0.10), so appeal-per-merit is not better at equal weights; it passes more bad-popular motions at low thresholds; winner-take-all raises populism sensitivity. It helps most against an organized Users faction. Delegation (transitive, scoped, revocable, capped, depth 2..unlimited) hardly changes outcomes; the cap controls concentration; depth is inert; the posted revocation rule decays the network without renewal. Pre-registered verdict: supported in 0 of 127 cells, fails in 2, undecided 125. Not merged, per instruction. Follow-ups served: `heimdall-body:follow_up:chat-s1938-1941` and `chat-mind-20261105T002133411Z-t0`. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Spec 5b (source: Golz et al. 2018 intro citing Behrens et al. 2014), copier
agents in estatesim.py, E3f alpha x cap x copy sweep with a computed
paired-interval verdict, 10 tests. Result: with copying the cap does not
reduce effective concentration. Earlier results.md sections unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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